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Belåningsgraden på bostäder i USA över 50%

kategori: Bostadsmarknad

Varje dag kommer det åtminstone en nyhet som på något sätt visar att det är fortsatt dåligt ställt med bostadsmarknaden i USA, och märkligt vore väl annat. Bostadspriser är ju inte direkt som aktiekurser där marknaden på en dag kan gå från total depression till full eufori.

Idag rapporterades i alla fall en siffra som kan vara värd att fundera lite över. Belåningsgraden på bostäder i USA ligger nu över 50%. Det är första gången den gör det sedan Fed började mäta den 1945. (Det innebär alltså att de totala bostadslånen i USA är större än 50% av det sammanlagda värdet på bostäder).

Det kan jämföras med Sverige, där den i september 07 enligt finansinspektionen låg på hela 59%.

Det finns säkert många anledningar till varför de här siffrorna inte går att bara jämföra rätt av (kommentera gärna…) Två kommer jag på med en gång.
1. Siffran från finansinspektionen inkluderar ej de hus och lägenheter som helt saknar lån, detta borde alltså göra siffran lite bättre.
2. Å andra sida så är inte heller den extra belåningen som de flesta bostadsrätter har via lånen i föreningen medräknad, det borde påverka siffran lite i negativ riktning.

Frågan hur stor belåningsgrad som är rimlig? I USA uppenbarligen inte 50%, i Sverige 59% and counting… Men det handlar ju förstås också mycket om hur lånen är fördelade. Om varje enskild individ hade 60% belåningsgrad hade det kanske inte varit så farligt, men problemet är att en del har 100% och en del 20%, och de som har 100% är de  som kan få problem.

I USA så kan man visserligen som enskild individ strunta i att betala och lämna huset, men i Sverige är du fast i lånet även om värdet på huset skulle falla långt under lånet vilket som jag ser det gör risken med att storlåna till köp av bostad avsevärt högre i Sverige, och borde därför motivera en lägre belåningsgrad.

I vilket fall så är det bara att gilla läget, för med en genomsnittlig amorteringstid som ligger på 93 år (133 år för bostadsrätter), finns det i inget som på kort sikt kan ta ner belåningsgraden. (Skulle vara en icke lånedriven ökning i bostadspriserna isåfall, och det är nog att hoppas på för mycket). Det är bara att vänta och se.

Homeowner Equity Is Lowest Since 1945 - Yahoo Biz
Bankerna har ökat sitt risktagande - Finansinspektion

Se även:
Huspriser USA dec-07

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